With all due respect to Bernie Miklasz, I have to disagree with him about one thing: Jon Jay. As a regular reader of Mr. Miklasz’s generally fantastic “Bernie’s Bytes,” I have noticed a continual disdain for the Cardinal’s center fielder that I fail to understand.
His latest beef is with Jay’s home/road splits last season. By comparing Jay statistically with ten of baseball’s most prolific center fielders, I hope to legitimize him as the Cardinals best option for many years to come (and perhaps even sway Mr. Miklasz . . . perhaps). Here are some preliminary 2012 statistics for all eleven players (taken from 2012):
WAR BA OBP Fld% Runs Games
Mike Trout 10.7 .326 .399 .993 129 139
Andrew McCutchen 7.0 .327 .400 .997 107 157
Michael Bourn 6.0 .274 .348 .995 96 155
Bryce Harper 5.0 .270 .340 .981 98 139
Adam Jones 3.4 .287 .334 .982 103 162
Jon Jay 3.2 .305 .373 1.000 70 117
Curtis Granderson 2.7 .232 .319 1.000 102 160
Matt Kemp 2.3 .303 .367 .995 74 106
B.J. Upton 2.6 .246 .298 .990 79 146
Shane Victorino 1.1 .245 .316 .992 72 154
Jacoby Ellsbury 0.8 .271 .313 .982 43 74
I intentionally left out power numbers such as home runs, RBIs, and slugging percentage because Jay isn't a power hitter. His strength comes from his ability to get on base, not drive in runs. It's also important to note how many games each player played and how that affects statistics such as runs
Now, let’s take a look at the problem that Bernie noticed: Jay’s low batting average on the road.
Road BA Road OBP
Mike Trout .332 .407
Andrew McCutchen .326 .397
Matt Kemp .301 .362
Adam Jones .277 .317
Bryce Harper .266 .333
Michael Bourn .262 .336
Shane Victorino .240 .307
Jacoby Ellsbury .240 .299
B.J. Upton .234 .280
Jon Jay .224 .289
Curtis Granderson .223 .310
Jay is nearly the worst in both batting average and on-base percentage. But he’s not the worst in either category: Jay hit better than Granderson on the road (just barely) and got on base more often than Upton. It’s not much, but it is something. What about at home?
Home BA Home OBP
Jon Jay .384 .453
Andrew McCutchen .329 .402
Mike Trout .318 .390
Jacoby Ellsbury .315 .333
Matt Kemp .304 .372
Adam Jones .297 .352
Michael Bourn .287 .361
Bryce Harper .275 .347
Shane Victorino .268 .335
B.J. Upton .258 .316
Curtis Granderson .241 .329
There is no doubt that Jay under performed on the road, but for the 61 games he played at home, he’s beyond comparison. No one is within fifty points of him in either on-base percentage or average. That level of play is incredible. At least in Busch Stadium, there is no bat any team would rather have in their lineup.
Mr. Miklasz did suggest that perhaps Jay’s disappointing road statistics were a fluke and would level themselves out with time, and a quick glance at his career splits seem to show exactly that:
Career Road BA Career Road OBP
Mike Trout .312 .382
Matt Kemp .296 .354
Jacoby Ellsbury .285 .338
Andrew McCutchen .279 .362
Shane Victorino .272 .331
Jon Jay .272 .328
Adam Jones .268 .310
Michael Bourn .266 .331
Bryce Harper .266 .333
Curtis Granderson .266 .345
B.J. Upton .258 .335
Jay’s career batting average on the road is far from amazing, but he puts himself in the middle of the pack, and while his on-base percentage is a little bit lower than everybody else’s, he’s still comparable. Given the small sample size available for Jay, it seems likely that his splits will fix themselves before long.
Now I want to look closely at Jay’s fielding statistics:
Fld% UZR Assists
Michael Bourn .995 22.4 3
Mike Trout .988 11.4 3
Bryce Harper .979 9.9 8
Jon Jay 1.000 4.0 1
Shane Victorino .994 4.0 9
Jacoby Ellsbury .982 2.9 2
B.J. Upton .990 -2.4 10
Adam Jones .982 -6.7 7
Andrew McCutchen .997 -6.9 3
Matt Kemp .995 -8.8 7
Curtis Granderson 1.000 -17.8 3
Jay isn’t at the top of the list, it’s true, but his UZR places him decidedly in the upper half amongst these elite center fielders. He isn’t outstanding defensively, but he’s more than adequate.
Jon Jay is also in the middle of the pack as far as WAR is concerned. He’s good, but not great:
WAR
Mike Trout 10.7
Andrew McCutchen 7.0
Michael Bourn 6.0
Bryce Harper 5.0
Adam Jones 3.4
Jon Jay 3.2
Curtis Granderson 2.7
B.J. Upton 2.6
Matt Kemp 2.3
Shane Victorino 1.1
Jacoby Ellsbury 0.8
Jay's statistics make him a decidedly decent player. He's an above average fielder and an above average hitter who excels at getting on base. But that's not the end of the story. The really interesting thing about these players is their price tags. These are the 2013 salaries for each player:
2013 Salary
Matt Kemp $20,000,000
Curtis Granderson $15,000,000
Shane Victorino $13,000,000
B.J. Upton $12,450,000
Jacoby Ellsbury $9,000,000
Adam Jones $8,500,000
Michael Bourn $7,000,000
Andrew McCutchen $4,500,000
Bryce Harper $2,000,000
Jon Jay $504,000 (2012)
Mike Trout $480,000 (2012)
Players such as B.J. Upton and Shane Victorino, who underperformed Jay both in terms of UZR and WAR (Upton also had a worse on-base percentage on the road than Jay), will make eight figures in 2013. Jon Jay will likely make six. For that matter, every player other than Jay and Trout will make at least two million dollars a year. And these aren't players failing to deliver on huge contracts that their respective teams now regret; they're being paid for how well they play right now. Bourn, Victorino, Upton, and McCutchen all have brand new multi-year contracts ranging in value from 39 million to 72.5 million. The market is saying that a center fielder of Jay’s caliber is set to make somewhere between 7 and 20 million dollars a year. The Cardinals are paying him half a million.
I concede that there are better center fielders out there, but I deny that there are any who can perform as well as Jay offensively or defensively for as little as St. Louis pays him. The player with the most comparable stats is Bryce Harper: he has a Rookie of the Year Award and is destined for stardom (and a huge contract to boot). Jon Jay has never won a league wide award and will probably never be up for a big payday. He’s an inexpensive center fielder who consistently outperforms expectations. He at least deserves a little recognition from the Cardinal Nation.
